The herd immunity theory was first suggested
by researcher A.W. Hedrich in the early 1900’s.1 During his
observations of measles outbreaks in the city of Baltimore, Hedrich noted that
when 68% of children under the age of fifteen had developed natural immunity to
measles, outbreaks in the community stopped.1 The idea
behind Hedrich’s theory is that when a pre-calculated percentage of a
population is immune to a disease, the disease is unable to gain a foothold and
spread through the population.1
Vaccine proponents later adopted Hedrich’s
theory and used it to predict epidemiological patterns in vaccinated
populations.2 This seemed
simple enough at first but as it turns out, there are significant differences
between natural immunity and vaccine-induced immunity that scientists
were not aware of at the beginning of widespread vaccination programs.2
The vaccination rate supposedly necessary
to achieve the desired herd immunity
threshold is under endless revision as scientists and health authorities
are forced to confront the reality that vaccination is not immunization. Though the
terms are often used interchangeably, vaccination
and immunization are two distinctly different processes.3
“You
can be vaccinated, but if there is
no immunity, you are not immunized.
You can be unvaccinated, but if you
have had the disease and have protection, you are immune; therefore you are immunized.”[emphasis mine]3
If vaccination were equivalent to immunization,
the CDC’s so-called “Immunization Schedule” would not need a growing succession of “booster shots” in order to
establish protection. Moreover, we would not
see vaccinated individuals constituting a high proportion of those affected
during disease outbreaks.
Inability of Acellular Pertussis Vaccination to
Establish Herd Immunity
Despite high DTaP uptake (the vaccine
supposed to protect against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis), in 2012,
the United States saw a 50-year high
in pertussis incidence, with
fully-vaccinated individuals constituting a high proportion of pertussis cases.4 In the following year, researchers for the FDA
hypothesized that acellular pertussis vaccines (the only kind currently
approved for use in the U.S.) do not prevent colonization and transmission of
pertussis. The FDA later issued a press
announcement stating that an in-house study had confirmed their hypothesis: acellular pertussis vaccines cannot prevent infection and transmission
of the bacterial pathogen that causes pertussis. 4 5 This means that the only known benefit of current pertussis
vaccines is that they can minimize pertussis symptoms. For this reason, however, pertussis
vaccination is arguably more dangerous to ‘the herd’ than the
unvaccinated since those who have been vaccinated are less likely to experience
clinical symptoms of infection, and thus less likely to be aware if they are
contagious.
Perhaps even more concerning is the
association of acellular pertussis vaccination with the rise of B.
parapertussis. A 2010 study revealed that DTaP vaccination interferes with
optimal clearance of B. parapertussis, a mutated version of the
pertussis bacteria, for which there is currently no vaccine.6 In 2013, a meeting of the Board
of Scientific Counselors at the CDC confirmed this finding, stating that patients who are up-to-date on
DTaP shots “had significantly
higher odds than unvaccinated patients” of becoming
infected with other strains of pertussis bacteria, suggesting that pertussis strains currently circulating in
the U.S. have gained a selective advantage to infect the vaccinated.7
8
Undeterred by these crucial findings, the CDC still boldly asserts that
“pertussis can be prevented with
vaccines” and even recommends routine vaccination of pregnant
women, claiming that pertussis vaccination can “protect mothers during delivery, making them
less likely to transmit pertussis to their infants.” 9 At best, this portrayal of pertussis vaccine
benefits is offhandedly misleading. At worst, the CDC is intentionally
misrepresenting the benefits of pertussis vaccines in favor of current vaccine
policies.
To be fair, it is possible that pertussis vaccination during
pregnancy could confer some level of protection to the infant during the first
weeks of life via passive antibody transfer, but the duration and effectiveness
of maternal vaccination to protect infants has not been well established. Very little is known about the effects the
vaccine could have on pregnant women and developing fetuses. The CDC still
maintains that any “theoretical” risk to mother and baby is outweighed by the
benefits of the vaccine.9
To further complicate matters, the CDC
estimates that only 70 percent of those who have received the entire 5-dose DTaP regimen are “fully
protected” just 5 years after their last shot.9 As
current pertussis vaccines have been proven ineffective at preventing
infection and transmission of pertussis, one has to
wonder what it could possibly mean to be “fully protected” by pertussis
vaccines? Even if these vaccines were capable of preventing pertussis
infection, as per the CDC’s own estimates, anyone over the age of 11 who hasn’t
had a booster shot is likely unprotected. 9
In summary, acellular pertussis vaccines
(DTaP and Tdap) are ineffective at
preventing infection and transmission of pertussis. Therefore, the only
known benefit of these vaccines is that they may render personal protection from severe pertussis symptoms. This protection is temporary, however, with many
vaccinees losing protection just 5 years after their last shot. The pertussis
booster is only protective for around 2
years and is only recommended once
per lifetime unless pregnant. That is, the same booster shot that is only
effective for 2 years and only recommended once per lifetime is currently
recommended during every pregnancy.
Let that sink in for a moment…
For all of the reasons above,
current pertussis vaccines are not capable of establishing herd immunity. Even
so, herd immunity-based arguments continue to be used to justify mandatory DTaP compliance of school
children and encourage booster shots for adults and pregnant women.
It should also be noted that the concept of herd immunity does not bear
equal relevance to every “vaccine-preventable disease.” Tetanus (a component of
DTaP and Tdap vaccines), for example, is not a communicable disease and
therefore, tetanus vaccination cannot affect herd immunity.8
Vaccines Vs. Natural Disease in Establishing
Herd Immunity
The original herd immunity theory was developed based on observations of a naturally immune population in which
immunity was lifelong. Given that the
protection afforded by vaccines is temporary at best, many doctors and
scientists now recognize that the herd
immunity theory cannot be applied to vaccinated populations with the
expectation of parallel results.
Nevertheless,
public health officials continue to use the theory to justify mandatory
vaccinations (especially among school-aged children) despite the fact that even
100 percent vaccine uptake among
children is not capable of establishing and maintaining herd immunity for the
entire population.10
If vaccines do not provide lifelong
immunity, and some vaccines cannot prevent infection and transmission of the
diseases they’re intended to prevent, what are the implications for the herd immunity threshold public health
officials claim is absolutely essential for preventing devastating epidemics?
Retired neurosurgeon, Dr. Russell Blaylock remarks in a 2012 article,
“That vaccine-induced
herd immunity is mostly myth can be proven quite simply. When I was in medical
school, we were taught that all of the childhood vaccines lasted a lifetime. This
thinking existed for over 70 years. It was not until relatively recently that
it was discovered that most of these vaccines lost their effectiveness 2 to 10
years after being given. What this means is that at least half the population, that is the baby boomers, have had no vaccine-induced immunity
against any of these diseases for which they had been vaccinated very early in life. In essence, at least 50% or more of the population was unprotected for decades…If we listen to present-day wisdom, we are all at risk of
resurgent massive epidemics should the vaccination rate fall below 95%. Yet, we
have all lived for at least 30 to 40 years with 50% or less of the population
having vaccine protection. That is, herd immunity has not existed in this
country for many decades and no resurgent epidemics have occurred.” 2 [emphasis
mine]
Using sophisticated mathematical and epidemiological models, a 2009
study by Heffernan et al. demonstrates that while mass-vaccination programs
have the effect of decreasing the prevalence of infectious diseases initially, due to waning vaccine immunity
and a decline in “boosting effects’ that occur during cyclical re-exposure to
disease, large-scale epidemics will
occur sometimes as long as 52 years after the vaccination program was begun.11 [emphasis mine]
Heffernan et al observe,
“In the absence
of vaccination, lifelong immunity is maintained through frequent encounters
with infection, which act to boost the waning immune memory…However, when
vaccination is introduced the prevalence of infection declines, which in turn reduces the amount of boosting and hence
the level of immunity…What is more surprising is that the interaction
between vaccination and waning immunity can lead to pronounced epidemic cycles in which the peak levels of infection
can be of the orders of magnitude greater than the mean.”11 [emphasis mine]
It can thus be
argued
that mass-vaccination actually undermines
herd immunity, leaving a population more vulnerable to infectious diseases than
it had been prior to vaccination programs. Dr. Tetyana Obuckanych further
explains that while mass-vaccination programs geared towards children have been
shown to achieve rapid reduction of disease at
first, this is “only because it
hitch hikes on top of the permanently immune majority of adults who acquired
their immunity naturally in the pre-vaccination era.”10
With a diminishing proportion of naturally
immune adults, the only way to maintain true herd immunity via vaccination will
be to vaccinate 100 percent of the population (including adults and the
elderly) as often as is needed to maintain protective antibody levels in the
majority of the population. Vaccine-induced herd immunity for some diseases
would require booster shots every 2-5 years for everyone in the population who is vaccine-eligible. According to
the CDC, there are very few actual precautions and contraindications to most
vaccines and many of these are only temporary.12 This means
that the majority of the population would be considered “vaccine-eligible” and
thus required to receive an indeterminate
number of booster shots for every “vaccine-preventable disease” in order to
maintain protective antibody titers in the majority.
True herd immunity from vaccines would necessarily require government-mandated, lifelong vaccine programs targeted at the entire
population with very few exceptions. If vaccines were perfectly safe,
perhaps such a rigorous vaccine schedule for the entire population wouldn’t be
a problem. But as is evidenced by every vaccine product insert and the tax-payer-funded Vaccine Injury
Compensation Program, vaccines are not near safe enough to
justify mandatory compliance of the entire population with such a schedule. Furthermore,
the observation that true herd immunity
has not existed in the U.S. for decades and no devastating epidemics have
occurred gives cause for serious doubts about its necessity.
References:
3.
Humphries,
MD and Bsytrianyk. (2013). Dissolving
Illusions
4.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24277828
5.
http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm376937.htm
6.
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/277/1690/2017
7.
http://www.cdc.gov/maso/facm/pdfs/BSCOID/2013121112_BSCOID_Minutes.pdf
8.
http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2015/04/30/harvard-trained-immunologist-demolishes-
9.
http://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/about/faqs.html
10.
http://www.naturalimmunityfundamentals.com/herdimmunity
11.
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/276/1664/2071
12.
http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/genrec.html
13.
http://www.hrsa.gov/vaccinecompensation/index.html
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